Flu season in South Central: Texas leads the season; the Gulf Coast adds its own twist
Texas alone has a bigger population than most countries, and its sheer size dominates Region 6's flu statistics. When flu hits the Houston-Dallas-San Antonio-Austin corridor — four of the country's ten largest metros within a single state — the regional ILI numbers move fast. Louisiana adds a Gulf Coast dynamic: New Orleans's tourism industry and older population contribute a different spread pattern than Texas's young, high-growth metros. Together, they make Region 6 one of the earliest-starting and hardest-hit regions in the country.
Current flu activity — HHS Region 6
This data is pulled live from the Delphi CMU Epidata API, which mirrors CDC FluView ILINet data for HHS Region 6. It reflects the most recent week available — typically data through the prior Saturday, published by the CDC the following Thursday.
States in HHS Region 6
HHS Region 6 covers Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. These states are grouped together by the Department of Health and Human Services for federal health program administration, and the CDC uses the same regional boundaries for flu surveillance reporting. ILI activity data is aggregated across all ILINet providers in the region, so the number reflects the regional average — individual states can vary significantly.
When flu typically peaks here
HHS Region 6 is one of the two earliest-peaking regions (alongside Region 4 — Southeast), with flu typically reaching its high point in December or early January. In H3N2-dominant years, activity in Texas can reach High levels in late November — a full six weeks ahead of the national peak. In late-season years, the peak shifts to January, but Region 6 still tends to lead or match the Southeast rather than the slower coastal regions.
Texas's school calendar drives early onset, similar to the Southeast: most Texas districts return in August, and ILI activity in pediatric surveillance starts rising in September. By October, Houston and Dallas typically show the earliest substantial flu activity in the state. The spread pattern flows outward from these hubs along I-10, I-35, and I-20 corridors.
New Mexico and Arkansas run slightly later than Texas and Louisiana, with peaks in January rather than December. Rural Oklahoma's tribal communities sometimes show distinct timing patterns, partly due to community structure and healthcare access differences.
What drives South Central flu patterns
Texas's scale. With 30 million people, Texas has more residents than many European countries. Houston (2.3M city, 7M metro) and Dallas-Fort Worth (7.7M metro) are independently large enough to drive national flu statistics. When both are simultaneously at High, the national ILI number moves perceptibly.
Early school calendars and year-round AC. Same pattern as Region 4 — August school starts and year-round air conditioning create early and continuous flu transmission conditions. Texas's climate means there is no meaningful cold season to speak of, yet flu spreads efficiently anyway through climate-controlled indoor spaces.
Gulf Coast humidity and winter dynamics. Louisiana's subtropical climate creates a slightly different seasonal pattern than Texas. New Orleans's high density, tourism-heavy economy, and older Ninth Ward-area population produce a distinct flu signature. Louisiana consistently shows among the highest ILI rates in the region per capita during peak weeks.
Healthcare access in rural areas. Arkansas, rural Louisiana, and southwestern Texas have significant gaps in primary care access. People who can't easily see a doctor are less likely to get the flu vaccine, less likely to access antivirals within the 48-hour window, and more likely to spread illness before seeking care. This contributes to sustained ILI elevation in rural counties even when urban areas are declining.
Recent seasons in HHS Region 6
Regional peak timing and severity can vary substantially from the national picture. The table below shows Region 6-specific peak months and severity for recent seasons, based on CDC FluView regional ILI data.
| Season | Regional peak | Dominant strain | Severity | Notable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024–25 | December | H3N2 / H1N1 | Very High | Texas hit Very High in December; one of the earliest starts on record |
| 2023–24 | December–January | H1N1 | Moderate | Moderate; Texas and Louisiana showed early onset; NM lagged |
| 2022–23 | November–December | H3N2 | Very High | Severe early season; Houston and Dallas among first major metros at peak |
| 2021–22 | January–February | H3N2 | High | Later start than typical for Region 6; post-COVID dynamics |
| 2019–20 | December–January | H1N1 | High | Early strong season; Texas led before spreading northward |
Watch Texas in October. Houston and Dallas are reliable leading indicators for the national season — if both metros are showing Moderate activity in October, expect a national peak in December or January. If Texas is still Low in November, the country is probably on track for a later, milder season. See current Region 6 activity. →
How to use this data
The live activity level above reflects the most recent week of CDC ILINet data for Region 6. There is always roughly a one-week lag between real-world conditions and published numbers — providers report weekly, the CDC publishes Thursdays, and this page reflects those numbers. During a rapidly rising season, treat the current level as a floor.
The ILI percentage is the share of outpatient visits attributed to influenza-like illness across all ILINet reporting providers in the region. It is not a case count and does not capture people who don't seek care. In regions with lower healthcare utilization rates (rural areas, communities with limited access), ILI percentages tend to understate true community activity.
For the most complete picture of the current season — including strain typing, lab positivity trends, and hospitalization data — the IsItFluSeasonYet homepage shows all of this in context. The regional activity shown here is the same data source as the homepage's region breakdown.